The price had already dropped below 10c before AGY abandoned continued attempts at producing at viable, commercial scale.
The lithium hype was massive, with many projects which actually succeeded in producing. Prices crashed and many operations which were viable are being mothballed due to the reduced lithium price. If prices do increase, these projects can be switched back on, almost immediately increasing supply. We may well see prices go above where they are now, but nothing like we saw before. Over time, cost of production will continue to fall as methods improve and more projects with lower production costs come online.
Meanwhile, AGY is sitting around slowly burning money with zero progress taking place and doubts about their ability to ever even work out how to produce at all, let alone worrying about the economics.
Traders and uninformed investors can push the price in silly directions to silly extents, but to go back above 10c when the situation is obviously, so much worse than when it was previously 10c is quite a stretch. The company is in garbage time, the market hasn't fully accepted that yet, but during the next few months while the situation is digested, there's no realistic chance of a catalyst for a run. They're obviously not going to restart operations, no one is going to fund the 10,000TPA plant, and lithium prices are still falling, while AGY's cash on hand slowly but surely declines.
What would cause a doubling in price? Where do you see the company in five years? What's the next positive development for AGY?
We were once looking forward to permits, offtake agreement, demonstration of ability to produce, funding... what are you looking forward to now? Commodity price increase and more attempts to get the pilot plant working?
We were only a few months away from AGY needing another CR to keep the lights on. If they want to resume operations, they'll need a CR. No doubt they'd come up with some fancy story to woo investors, but more than doubling the share price seems a very long stretch, especially when the imminent CR would be obvious.
You've spent so many years convincing yourself that this was going to crazy lofty highs that you can't objectively see the new situation.
AGY Price at posting:
4.0¢ Sentiment: Sell Disclosure: Not Held
