2024 Charts, page-19

No one needs to put any work into containing the price. The lithium price and company’s lack of delivering on any promises is doing a fine job of that.

The big sell orders you remember were at higher prices than the current one and if the seller sold they did well to do so.

What signs indicate we’re at all likely to move onwards and upwards? We literally didn’t even get the resource upgrade by the end of last year, which is difficult to fathom since all the physical work was completed quite some time ago (heavily delayed as it was) and all that was required is the analysis/modelling.

Literally every major milestone is now years behind schedule and they have failed to deliver on any significant target, despite saying they were ‘imminent’ etc literally years ago.

When they actually deliver on something, we can say the picture is looking good. Right now it’s looking terrible. It seems very unlikely we can avoid a CR at this point, even if production is genuinely imminent, which it almost certainly isn’t. The permit most likely won’t be given until we are in production, let’s face it, something is holding it up, and if that thing isn’t getting into production, I challenge anyone to tell me why it has taken literally years to get it done; all the other excuses people have come up with over the now literal years are looking completely implausible. The strategic partnership deal if there ever was one behind the public eye has obviously fallen through. At this point even getting the permit would be of little help to the share price because the market rightly thinks it’s doubtful AGY will ever make the plant work; at some point after years of delays you have to doubt that it will happen at all. I’m not saying they’ll never actually get there, but the market doubts it, and at this point nothing other than production is going to change that view, and until actual meaningful production (not just 10 or so tonnes per month with completely unviable economics) happens, we can’t say the picture is looking promising.

Many people here are desperately trying to see this situation with rose-tinted glasses, but the overall market view is not going to have the same bias as shareholders who are trying to console themselves and kid themselves into thinking it was not misfortune to have been holding. Buyers aren’t coming in until we get tangible positive developments. The permit might have really helped back when the market thought we were likely to get the plant working as promised, the resource upgrade might have helped back when the market thought we would shortly have the permit and had the ability to actually make product at commercial scale, a strategic partnership might have happened back when lithium prices were strong and AGY looked like actually having something to supply, but now the market sees a probable train wreck and presumably empty promises after years of confirmed empty promises, and hopes will only be relevant to holders trying to sleep at night, not convince meaningful numbers of buyers to boost the share price.

*cue someone to use the decoy strategy of ‘why don’t you sell?’ or ‘you can’t genuinely think the obvious reality, you must be a shorter’ or ‘you used a slightly different definition of some word than I like so I’ll try to discount the big picture message with that detail’ or some other such nonsense.