2024 Charts, page-461

I’m not pushing any narrative, just my thoughts mate. I can think of a few reasons why the AGY share price has recently outperformed the rest of the sector, but none have anything to do with company progress:

1. Short covering. Removal from the ASX300 means some shorts have been covering to return holdings to funds. >8m were recently covered, which explains at least some of the recent buying pressure. We only have numbers up to 11 March though, so I’ll be looking to Shortman to see how the numbers look for the rest of this week. An important point to note is that while we know that the shorts have covered, we don’t know whether the funds have on-sold their positions yet. We’ll need to watch next week for selling pressure.

2. Milestone FOMO. There’s five milestones due at the end of the quarter, so I assume some have again been suckered in by JZ’s targets.

3. Individual superannuation investors piling in prior to exclusion from the ASX300. Today was the last day that I could purchase AGY shares with my superannuation fund. That large pool of buyers are gone on Monday. I expect that the pressure to buy prior to exclusion probably added to the buying over the last couple of weeks.

4. Buy side manipulation. Stacking of the buy side has been clear as day for the last week or two now. I’m not sure by who or why, but I suspect that it’s either to drive the price up to increase VWAP for a cap raise, or it’s funds pumping the price prior to exiting larger positions.

IMO, the next couple of weeks will be crucial. The shorts that had to close are probably done now, there could be pressure from funds selling next week, it’s crunch time for the milestones, and the spot and futures prices look to be taking a breather. I have no idea which way it will go, but I’m watching with interest.

Stay nimble.