Daily 22 Mar Outlook. Not the ending that we were looking for...

Daily 22 Mar

Outlook.
Not the ending that we were looking for but not entirely unexpected.

Fri low reached the 61% line as measured from the Jan low at 8.6 to the high at 19.5.
It also has near enough filled the FVG at 12.7 – 15.

Are we there yet?
I don’t know. The indicators are still negative looking atm so there may be some more downside in the s/t.

Hopes for some positive news in the qtrly or a project update this week will maybe help hold the immediate support around 13 but the lack of any resolution in regards to the long promised permits & production issues will likely see that become resistance again as it was for a while during Feb. and potentially lead to retesting the sub 10 levels.

Resistance initially is around 14 – 15
Second line of support is down around 11.5 around

Weekly
Outlook
Positives
Stoch is in the bullish zone between 50 – 80
MACD is above its sig line & rising
Histogram is above zero.

Negatives
Stoch has turned down sharply from its peak
Histogram shows a divergence & has made a lower peak the previous.

Outlook
The chart still looks mildly bullish after the prev weeks high on high vol.
Last weeks vol was fairly high as well & possibly short related with some profit taking thrown in
The prev week showed 14mill positions closed.
Last week showed little reported shorts despite the 1.8 mill new positions on Mon. 1.5 of which don’t appear in the daily report.

So, with the wkly candle looking bearish & the low hitting support the week ahead is looking likely to see more downside in the short term.
Next support down is around 11.5.
If we get a rally to close higher next week, initial resistance is around 17 & up to 22.



The monthly chart at this time is still showing signs of recovery but looks like it will take another month at least to clear the resistance area from the 15 – 20 area.
If we close the month with that current candle that will potentially  signal a retest of the lows around 10.