Pediatric GvHD Market of 500 - 600, targetting hospitals that treat 50% of these, so expected patient population of say 300.
300 patients x 600,000 Treatment -> 180,000,000 USD Gross sales -> 270,000,000 AUD Gross sales
40% Margin -> 108,000,000 AUD
Minus operating costs 44 million per annum ( based on Q1 cashburn ) -> 64,000,000
Minus 25% Tax -> $48 million profit.
Share Price $1.49 on PE 36
Adults 5 x larger.
Sales ( 5 x 270,000,000 ) x 1.3 ( Adult weight adjust ) -> 1.755 Billion Sales ( USD )
50% Margin ( bioreactors ) -> 877 Million AUD
Operating costs covered by pediatric profit.
Minus 25% Tax -> 658 Million USD profit.
Share Price $19.90 PE 36
or $8.31 PE 15
CLBP
Over 1.2 million spinal fusions performed in the USA each year, with 1.8 million sufferers using prescription opioids from a pool of 30 million patients.
1% total market penetration ( 25% current spinal fusion market penetration )
Sales 300,000 at 30,000 USD per treatment -> 9 Billion USD sales -> 13.5 Billion AUD sales
30% margin ( 50% profit share with partner, bioreactors and second gen product - low cell count per treatment ) -> 4.05 Billion AUD
Operating cost covered by pediatric GvHD
Minus 25% tax -> 3 Billion profit
Share Price $91 PE 36
or $38 PE 15
CHF - Lvad with Ischemic heart failure ( Accelerated approval group )
2,500 patients x 250,000 Price -> 625 Million USD -> 950 Million AUD
20% Margin ( 50% partnership ) -> 187 Million Aud net sales
25% tax -> 140 Million Aud
Share price $4.25 PE 36
or $1.75
CHF - class 2 or 3. ( 6.5 Million sufferers total - 960,000 added annually, progressive disease, class 1 leads to class 2, leads to class 3 etc )
Inferred 1.92 Million class 2 / 3 sufferers.
1% Market penetration ~ 19,200 yearly.
19,200 patients x 250,000 price -> $4.8 Billion USD -> 7.2 Billion AUD
20% Margin ( 50% partnership ) -> 1.44 Billion Aud net sales
25% tax ->1.08 Billion AUD profit
Share Price $32.64 PE 36
or $13.44
Some of this = long lead time, and obviously hinges on initial future trial success and then approval.
10 years time.... well if GvHD gets approved alone should be a Disallowed from these prices at least.
- Forums
- ASX - By Stock
- 2024 Here we go again.
Pediatric GvHD Market of 500 - 600, targetting hospitals that...
-
- There are more pages in this discussion • 152 more messages in this thread...
You’re viewing a single post only. To view the entire thread just sign in or Join Now (FREE)
Featured News
Add MSB (ASX) to my watchlist
|
|||||
Last
99.0¢ |
Change
0.010(1.02%) |
Mkt cap ! $1.130B |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
99.5¢ | $1.02 | 98.5¢ | $5.507M | 5.501M |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
1 | 9996 | 99.0¢ |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
99.5¢ | 18069 | 3 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
1 | 9996 | 0.990 |
2 | 32880 | 0.985 |
4 | 71034 | 0.980 |
2 | 3059 | 0.975 |
7 | 145890 | 0.970 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
0.995 | 1132 | 1 |
1.000 | 9500 | 3 |
1.005 | 35000 | 1 |
1.010 | 58113 | 4 |
1.015 | 46100 | 3 |
Last trade - 16.10pm 28/06/2024 (20 minute delay) ? |
Featured News
MSB (ASX) Chart |
The Watchlist
LU7
LITHIUM UNIVERSE LIMITED
Alex Hanly, CEO
Alex Hanly
CEO
SPONSORED BY The Market Online