Another way to look at it is - what is the downside from here...

Another way to look at it is - what is the downside from here and what is the upside.

Scenario 1 - no more delays and we get working Gen II chips out soon. A demo sees the SP head North to $30 +.
Scenario 2 - some more delays, but we get Gen II working chips eventually. SP = $30+.
Scenario 3 - more delays and AKP announce problems getting the chips to work. Roll on Gen III. SP halves to $4.

That's the risk/reward as I see it, but ultimately it's a still a waiting game.