The problem with using barge movements is the loaded weight of barges depends on both the ongoing condition of the river bar and tide/river height.Last year they were 5400/5600 on good days via my calcs.
So barges may be under loaded/have varying loads from what you think due to bar being high or river flow being exceedingly low at certain times of the year ,reducing barge clearance.
The bar I believe is prohibited from opening up if it slowly silts up between natural river flushes,reducing under barge clearance and then they may also be shipping at mid tides to keep ton movements up at these new movement rates.
As the pressure comes on for barge movements then the tide/river/bar height will become a greater issue as to barge loaded weights.
At lower shipping tonnage they could easily pick high tide for outward barge movements to fit maximum processed tonnage on to existing barges.
I seem to remember at one stage years ago in the start-up comments due to tug breakdown they had a barge out of service due to barge being then overloaded for the next available tide/river conditions and it having to wait for a extra high tide to get it back in service.
There may also be a restriction on how many barges they may be able to string together if they can do so going ahead and control in the river,so hampering just being able to cherry picking high tide outward movements.
So back to Arrows boat movements as being the most reliable form of tons reconciliation of actual tons movement.
I too once thought they were creaming it via increased barge movements only to find they were struggling to barge tons due to the above.
Regards
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