the high watermark for loading was ~31kt per day as published in the latest trading update. We know that the best day was 12 barge moves (or 6 barges loaded). So with some very simple maths you would get ~5.2kt per barge roughly.
We could probably assume a 5,000t to 5,500t range per barge with room for improvement as they load quicker over time, and then reconcile that with the tonnage of the capesize and Newcastlemax vessels.
(For those with a longer-term timeframe, there will be 10,000 tonne barges coming to mitigate the tide issues).
I wouldnt get too excited about the Newcastlemax vessels either, because capesize are the most commonly available vessels for shipping bulks. At a guess I think we could get maybe a ratio of 1 Newcastlemax to 9 capes.
PS Whether we load 5,400 or 5,100 per barge quickly becomes immaterial if the commodity price keeps going steady towards the top right, assuming we maintain a cadence of 9-10 barge moves per day throughout most of the 2H.
MMI Price at posting:
5.8¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)