Wanted to discuss the following:
Quarter 3:
Five out of six of the previous six Q3 updates (2018-2023) have seen an increase in sales compared to the prior quater.
I took the five years where quarter 3 increased compared to quarter 2 and calculated the average increase quarter on quarter:
= 31.7%.
Last quarter we reported unit sales of 4,167.
For this reason, I'm going to put it out there and say that if we see unit sales for quarter 3, 2024 of 5,488 (increase of 31.7%) or more, thats a great result.
It means a return to the historical average of q3 vs q2 sales increases. This figure will be compelling and will probably signal a buy event for me personally.
Quarter 4:
Looking forward, if we do the same for q4 compared to quarter 3, we find that sales declined in quarter 4 when compared to q3 in five out of the six years.
The average decline for the five quarters that declined was 17.1%.
Thus, if quarter 4 can only decline on the quarter 3 figure (whatever that may be) by around 17%, that's also a great result and signals a return to the historical average of q3 vs q4 unit sales decreases.
Looking for patterns, I know, however this is long term historical averages with 6 years of data. It's got to mean something.
What are others looking for?
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2024 Q3 Update - What are we looking for?
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