2025 Charts, page-100

1.9c might actually be a decent level to buy at for a short to medium term trade, given it was the low previous to the 2.6c low in the Wuhan virus panic insanity of 2020, and the low before 1.9c in 2016 was all the way down to 0.1c in 2015, which I'm confident we won't be seeing in a hurry.

1.9c is also a fairly reasonable ballpark guess for how low it might get if you account for an increase in SOI due to the upcoming CR (which will likely include funds for the DFS and keeping the lights on for another 6-12 months or more) and keeping the market cap from sinking too low. It's no secret what I think of the company fundamentals, but market sentiment is a different thing, and however you value the company fundamentally, the bears can't do more than sell all they have, and the market cap can only go so low before the bulls see enough value to want to buy - at this stage perception is all that matters, and on the perception of the bulls is particularly relevant now - if you're disillusioned at this point you've almost certainly either sold already or resigned yourself not to until/unless things improve (and this means if things actually were to improve, plenty of people would start selling out irrationally just because the price has increased a little, which would make topping up at a good price easy, which makes holding right now before any unlikely hypothetical improvement has occurred, crazy).

On the chart, 2.6c is a very significant support level, so it'll be interesting to see if it holds until the CR is announced. I'm curious to see what price they raise capital at, and if it will be open to retail - holders almost always overestimate CR prices, and the ATL deal went through at a premium which was a remarkable achievement for AGY, though providing the hands of the previous mob who dared to trust them with third degree burns may make others wary this time, though will likely fill holders with optimism until the actual news when they say 'Wow, no one could have seen that coming' (except all the people they have on their ignore list).

Conducting a DFS at this stage is going to be interesting in itself, since already having built a pilot plant then a commercial plant which failed so hard they had to relabel it to something other than a commercial plant would seem to make it a redundant theoretical analysis of something there is already empirical evidence/a case study for, so it's going to be a very interesting thing to watch and I'm looking forward to the show.