You can make as many models and fancy predictions and creative...

You can make as many models and fancy predictions and creative number shuffling efforts as you like, but at some point you'll have to accept that unless AGY gains funding to build the 10,000TPA prototype trial facility, it's not going to run that hard. A surge in lithium prices will increase the price of all lithium companies no matter how dysfunctional or absurd, but some more than others.

One can only wonder why you would want to hold now if your own expectation is that Chinese companies will rally at some point after now, American companies not until some time after that, and not until 6-12 months even further than American companies run will AGY run. I don't imagine holding now is for the delightful experience of having skin in the game when the upcoming CR to keep the lights on is announced, it's not like anyone is just about to throw hundreds of millions of no-strings-attached dollars at AGY to build the 10,000TPA third time lucky plant and in the incredibly unlikely event that funding does come it'll likely crash the price in the short term, so what's the appeal of holding right now even if you somehow have an optimistic outlook for the project not only being built but functioning to spec?

Maybe the goal in holding is something other than trying to make money? It just seems a very peculiar course of action. When there are obvious upcoming forces to push the price down and your own outlook is for prices not to increase for a long time.