(Edit: for those of you viewing on your phone, the date range of the chart is 2017-present) on computer you can click chart to enlarge)
Established Theory - AGY moves with the lithium carbonate spot price.The price rise is not delayed when the spot price rises, but rather - seemingly instantaneously. Notably, however a bear market starts 2-3 months after the peak lithium price as opposed to instantaneously (note peak 2018,2023).
Black line - lithium carb spot price
Blue line - AGY (indexed at 1 from beginning)
View attachment 6860697Established Theory - Chinese Index moves in advance of the Lithium Carbonate price, sometimes by up to 12 months. My theory is because China mostly controls this industry from lithium processing, to batteries to EVS their insight into market dynamics in advance are much more predominant than any other market. The ever so slight ascension on the Chinese index currently, is a welcome sign.
Black - lithium carb spot
Blue - Chinese Index
View attachment 6860718Jezza prediction
1) Chinese index up 2025
2) Spot price + AGY up from 2026
Established Theory - Big US Lithium players (NYSE index) can slightly anticipate pricing in advance, but not to the same degree as China.
As you can see around November 2019, even the US players rose slightly in advance of improving lithium prices. I think the full extent of their rise in advance is muddied by how much COVID stimulus played into this post Jan 2020 though.
black - lithium carb spot
blue - chinese index
red - US index (NYSE)
View attachment 6860808Adding AGY to the chart (in light blue), it confirms as established above that with AGY there is no "anticipation" factor applied to us. We move directly with spot, unlike the big major players who can anticipate a little in advance.
View attachment 6860829Established Theory: AGY share price is hurt since 2018 by:- dilution to fund s2 + annual expenses (~900m shares on issue --> 1.45m)
- market confidence in AGY following stage 2 plant mishaps
- failure of "financing" not eventuating when dangled last lithium price boom
(which according to media financing didn't happen due to permits not granted at the time + poor Argentinian economic environment and currency stability pre current president Milei) I'm sure perhaps there may or may not have been other reasons too.
chart below: ASX Lithium Brine peers ( orange) vs AGY (blue)
View attachment 6860844Someone on the forum had a dig at me for saying the negative factors around AGY were already "priced in", as if they werent. I think arguably according to the chart they are (lets not get into never-ending argument around quantification of that "priced-in"), especially when you take into consideration AGY's market cap is $20 US million now, and is less than it was before either of the last lithium cycles (peak COVID sell-off excluded).
I think it comes down to risk appetite. I could type black and blue about how any of the stocks in the Chinese Index i made, or the US NYSE index are better and "safer", but clearly they don't rise as much during the lithium boom cycles comparatively. If had big generational wealth i was safeguarding sure. Pursuing 1st generational wealth takes more risk. I think the price being where it is now provides a lot of opportunity, now more than ever for when the market recovers; not to mention if AGY pull off their 12,000 tpa funding, there is more reward to current price ratio now more than ever. (my own thoughts applicable to me and my situation, not financial advice)
(20min delay)