It's probably a bit melodramatic to say this is a 'toyal...

It's probably a bit melodramatic to say this is a 'toyal disconnect'. Spot prices are clearly on a steady downward trend, and AGY is too. AGY had an extreme drop (even I changed my sentiment from SELL at that time because it was clearly overdone) and it is now simply back in line with the trend, still below where it was immediately before that very sudden, extreme crash it was inevitably going to recover from.

Many here have speculated over the last year or so that lithium prices were about to recover and the low was in. It's quite amazing how low the lithium price has become and I'm now at the point where I'm thinking it's likely near the bottom, but it's almost always dangerous to call a bottom before it's in unless there's a specific, distinct reason to, unlike an ongoing, consistent trend, in which case it makes sense to wait for the bounce to actually happen.

AGY management are presumably waiting for that bounce before doing their CR, and perhaps they're sitting on some fluff announcement to release when that happens. They've left it dangerously late now, likely because they were expecting the lithium price bounce sooner. That will likely be the time we actually see something of a disconnect between the AGY and lithium spot prices - they absolutely have to do a CR soon, and the lithium price can't continue going down for too much longer (I think?). Once lithium stops falling it'll be interesting to see if it bounces or just moves sideways. I imagine there are some nervous folks involved in various aspects of the situation.