Apparently I'm breaking tradition (sorry
@seagull ) but thought I'd kick things off for the year.
Recently jumped back into AGY so may as well share what I'm looking at in AGY and the lithium sector rn.
I mentioned a number of weeks ago that the gap at 2.6c was in sight and although I had high hopes it would fill (still might), I got over waiting and jumped in at 2.8c.
Why did I get back in?
I'll be clear, the money I put down is more in the gamble basket than the high conviction basket.
However there are a number of pros that I'll outline later.
As for the cons, with this stock there are many and I'd have to say the bears on these threads have been pretty spot on for a while - but it is a massive punish trying to read through when the ultra-bears and ultra-bulls try to talk sh1t about how good they are at trading/investing and how sh1t the others are. The fact that they all spend time going over said posters history to pull out some rubbish they said years ago says to me that they have a few issues.
No offence guys but perhaps look at some more meaningful hobbies in 2025...
Back to AGY. I also mentioned a number of weeks ago that I'd want to see a turn in the sector - this hasn't happened yet and I personally don't think the bottom is in just yet.
I track insto trades across stocks and sectors and as far as lithium goes I'm yet to see any meaningful buying to get me excited.
In fact the last heavy insto trade on ALB was in Dec opex and price has since kept dipping, which says this was short positioning (I'd want to see it drop a little further to confirm as there was a similar set up on uranium for YE and you can see what happened to that overnight).
This particular trade was the 37th biggest trade on ALB (since inception) and was also part of a very large cluster which was actually the 27th largest cluster - to the tune of $125mil
Below you can see the 10 largest trades on ALB over the past year
.
There's been bugger all action on other lit stocks in US (bar ALTM of course) so I'll let you know when there's any sign.
If the bottom isn't in then why buy in to AGY?
AGY has been hammered (with good reason) and although she could drop further the difference between high 2's and low 2's is bugger all so was happy to grab a chunk cause I do think it was a little oversold.
So what's the pro's for AGY?
I mentioned a turn in the sector as the number one - and I believe we see that this year.
I also mentioned a change in leadership.
I think Jerko and Pablo have fumbled the ball so many times it's laughable.
It's clear that Pablo is an expert in the field I just wonder if his experience has limited his ability to get the most out of what AGY has.
I think brining on Lycopodium is a step in the right direction. If you look through their works/experience you'll see they have developed a number of different lithium projects, each quite different and I believe this could be the piece of the puzzle that's needed to unlock AGY.
And if they can unlock Salta Province then what's to say they can't unlock Tonopah in the USA?
And I'll be completely honest, I do think AGY has potential to do a lot more than they've managed to show to date but if they can't then I'm pretty confident they'll pump it far enough away from the 3's before any potential CR , so if there's no major developments in the sector then that may be my curtain call but I would much prefer to stick around to see this phoenix rise from the ashes once more and finally spread its wings.
Oh and seeing that this is a TA thread I'll give you the lowdown on what to look at on AGY.
Charting-wise
If you were looking at the last 12mths is probably easier to take a page put a dot in the top left hand corner then one in the bottom right and join the dots - that's pretty much the AGY chart... lol
But seriously, AGY is actually showing some green shoots.
Below is the daily chart from that fateful day in July when she dipped hard.
Momentum indicators are showing positive signs for a little while now and today is the first time AGY has broken 3.0c in a month - baby steps...
You'll see the POC (most loaded price) for this consolidation zone is 3.8c - if you want to get excited then that's the price it needs to break before you can crack open the beers IMO...
AGY daily
This is all my humble opinion of course so be sure to DYOR.
I won't always be around to write posts like these but tore my pec over xmas and just got it reattached (wouldn't recommend) and have been boring myself to death with inactivity so thought I'd put myself to good use and do something productive.
Now I'm off to the gym to train legs - again...
All the best and GLTAH...
(20min delay)