Interesting take on things, if somewhat puzzling. Oh, and there's a very strong inverse correlation between how well AGY is doing and how much Seagull posts, so it's not surprising he's quiet these days.
The one positive I'd agree with you on is that the sector may improve this year, and a rising tide will float all boats. On that metric alone, AGY may increase in price at some stage along the way, and sure, if you time it right, with some luck you might make a successful trade on AGY.
Another positive I can suggest for AGY is that the market cap is relatively low compared to the size of the proposed project. This doesn't necessarily mean much in a solid fundamental sense, but even just talking about a project worth hundreds of millions of dollars with any chance (actual or perceived) of eventuating, means a market cap around $45M is low in some senses (the usual suspects will probably try to quote me out of context on this one and claim I said $45 is good value etc... have fun, I guess).
I'll add to that, the vast majority of holders paid a lot more for their shares than the current price, and if a crash in price was going to scare them into selling, they already would have as plenty already have, so a large percentage of the SOI are tightly held, which will provide some price resilience.
So, those are the positives I can think of, and when that's the list, I can see why you're putting this into the 'gambling' category rather than serious investment group.
We've started the month and year with a small increase in price, which seems pretty ominous given a CR is clearly needed in the near future, we have a quarterly coming out at the end of this month in which they'll have no choice but to show how soon the CR is needed, so most likely the CR will be announced before the end of this month, and for absolutely entirely mysterious reasons we usually see share prices get pumped in the couple of weeks or so before CRs are announced, so this price increase seems right on schedule.
The chart, of course, looks plainly hideous as you say. There's not much point elaborating too much and you sum it up well in saying it's pretty much going from the top left to the bottom right; they don't get too much worse.
As for the discussion, you know it's a concerning situation when the bulls generally don't even try to address valid concerns and instead resort to attacking the poster. When a legitimate analysis or question is presented, rather than addressing it they typically resort to personal attacks, questioning motives, etc. If they did have valid responses, they'd give them instead of throwing mud and changing the topic from the company to the poster.
Oh, you mentioned Tonopah - this has been discussed previously, but it's absolutely dead and burried. It was possibly once seen as a genuinely prospective tenement but then spent years merely as a faux carrot to dangle, and now isn't even mentioned much because everyone knows it's worth nothing.
I actually think there may be some trading opportunities in AGY coming up this year. After the CR I'll assess it.
Good luck with your pec healing up! Hopefully it fares better than your AGY gamble this year!
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