2025 Charts, page-78

Got some interesting findings for ya fellas, about time we had something positive in the charting threads.

I've been doing some analysis on the monthly MACD across different lithium stocks, and there's been some promising signs from this indicator, reflecting that the bear run will most likely end for AGY some time this year, and turn to very slight bull

(in line with Goldman Sachs forecasts of lithium price)
2024: $10k USD
2025: $11k USD
2026 $15k USD

First i want to establish (to strengthen my argument) that Monthly MACD is an amazing reflection of whether something is in a bear run, or bull run depending on whether its value is positive or negative
Positive: Bull run
Negative: Bear run.

here's an illustration for argument sake. You can see how the Monthly MACD is very strongly associated with whether we're trending up or down.


MACD isn't rocket science, it's essentially two moving averages, a slower one and a faster one. if the faster one is above the slower one then things generally are trending up. Because trends on a monthly timeframe generally stick around for at least a couple of years, that's why Monthly MACD is such a good relfection of overall sentiment.

So now that i've supported my hypothesis that very generally and loosely speaking:
Positive monthly MACD = Bull run
Negative monthly MACD = Bear run


lets analyse where a lot of the lithium companies are at with their monthly MACD

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4		Peak	Jan 24	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan 25
5	AGY[/B]	February 2023	-0.054	-0.054	-0.049	-0.043	-0.037	-0.032	-0.029	-0.029	-0.026	-0.022	-0.019	-0.016	-0.012
6	LKE	April 2022	-0.8	-0.7	-0.6	-0.5	-0.45	-0.38	-0.3	-0.23	-0.15	-0.08	POSITIVE
7	GLN	April 2022	-0.08	-0.087	-0.083	-0.078	-0.073	-0.073	-0.072	-0.068	-0.062	-0.052	-0.04	-0.032	-0.023
8	CXO	Nov 2022	-0.126	-0.119	-0.11	-0.101	-0.089	-0.078	-0.07	-0.06	-0.05	-0.035	-0.026	-0.021	-0.011
9	Lit ETF	Nov 2021	-2.7	-3	-2.7	-2.4	-2.2	-1.9	-1.9	-1.8	-1.6	-1	-0.6	-0.1	POSITIVE
10	PLS	Aug 2023	-0.175	-0.2	-0.17	-0.17	-0.16	-0.16	-0.2	-0.23	-0.24	-0.21	-0.21	-0.22	-0.24
11	LTR	Oct 2023	-0.12	-0.17	-0.19	-0.2	-0.19	-0.17	-0.18	-0.17	-0.17	-0.16	-0.14	-0.13	-0.13
12	SQM	Nov 2022	-4.78	-5.05	-4.7	-4	-3.9	-3.3	-3.2	-3.1	-2.8	-2.3	-1.9	-1.5	-1.4
13	ALB	Nov 2022	-15.8	-16.1	-14.1	-12.2	-10.9	-9.9	-9.9	-9.5	-9	-7.5	-6	-4	-3.7
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16		Peak	Jan 24	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan 25
17	AGY[/B]	February 2023	100.00%	100.00%	90.74%	79.63%	68.52%	59.26%	53.70%	53.70%	48.15%	40.74%	35.19%	29.63%	22.22%
18	LKE	April 2022	100.00%	87.50%	75.00%	62.50%	56.25%	47.50%	37.50%	28.75%	18.75%	10.00%	POSITIVE
19	GLN	April 2022	100.00%	108.75%	103.75%	97.50%	91.25%	91.25%	90.00%	85.00%	77.50%	65.00%	50.00%	40.00%	28.75%
20	CXO	Nov 2022	100.00%	94.44%	87.30%	80.16%	70.63%	61.90%	55.56%	47.62%	39.68%	27.78%	20.63%	16.67%	8.73%
21	Lit ETF	Nov 2021	100.00%	111.11%	100.00%	88.89%	81.48%	70.37%	70.37%	66.67%	59.26%	37.04%	22.22%	3.70%	POSITIVE
22	PLS	Aug 2023	100.00%	114.29%	97.14%	97.14%	91.43%	91.43%	114.29%	131.43%	137.14%	120.00%	120.00%	125.71%	137.14%
23	LTR	Oct 2023	100.00%	141.67%	158.33%	166.67%	158.33%	141.67%	150.00%	141.67%	141.67%	133.33%	116.67%	108.33%	108.33%
24	SQM	Nov 2022	100.00%	105.65%	98.33%	83.68%	81.59%	69.04%	66.95%	64.85%	58.58%	48.12%	39.75%	31.38%	29.29%
25	ALB	Nov 2022	100.00%	101.90%	89.24%	77.22%	68.99%	62.66%	62.66%	60.13%	56.96%	47.47%	37.97%	25.32%	23.42%

This tells us that most of these companies or ETFs have about 10-30% left of their bear run to go before turning into bull (not long). PLS and LTR are an exception as you can see by the figures above. Rationale for this is i think they had so much hype and investment from Superfunds their near-peak was only quite recent (August 2023, October 2023) respectively.

Some of the companies or ETFs that peaked before the other ones are now into a positive Monthly MACD.
i.e. LKE and the lithium etf.

Wanna see what happens when monthly MACD suddenly turns positive? Lets look and see what happened to LKE on absolutely zero news.



The same thing will most likely happen to AGY and would absolutely be worth the short-term trade to help average down, as you'll notice the trade is short-lived, but generally signifies the end of long-trending price degradation and into more long-term positive sentiment.

The reason the surge happens is because heaps of traders have "alerts" which alert them for short term trading opportunities when monthly MACD switches from negative to positive on a stock. So you have hundreds of people suddenly entering your stock to trade it for a quick buck. Again, same will most likely happen to AGY, just as it did in 2021, although a little more delayed than LKE's in terms of responsiveness.



Anyway. aside from the short-term trading opportunity ahead, more significantly my point is that with a long-term perspective. AGY is potentially only 2-5 months off a positive monthly MACD. this is pretty soon.

Cheers big ears
Jezza