Hi, Thought worth starting a new thread on Valuation and any...

Hi,

Thought worth starting a new thread on Valuation and any Analyst Report since we dont have one. Let me have a crack first with what I believe could play out for 2025. Look forward to constructive feedback.

Current Share Price =260.74M ( Shares O/S) / $700M Market Cap = A$2.68

Current Share Price (~A$2.68)Implies the market is pricing in closer to a 10% net profit margin with a P/E ratio slightly above 15x.

Upside: If Appen achieves a 10% margin and the market assigns a 20x P/E, the share price could rise to A$3.30

My calculation:
Updated revenue forecast ( Let's say we get this as per the guidance): A$400M – A$430M
Shares outstanding: 260M
Net profit margin range: 5% – 10%

Net Profit
Calculation At 5% margin:
A$400M revenue → Net profit = A$20MA$430M revenue → Net profit = A$21.5M
At 10% margin:
A$400M revenue → Net profit = A$40MA$430M revenue → Net profit = A$43M

EPS Calculation
At 5% margin:= A$0.077- A$0.083
At 10% margin:A$0.154-A$0.165

Assuming a P/E range of 15x 10% margin, A$430M revenue - the future price should be $2.48. ( which is where we are roughly)

Assuming a P/E range of 20x, 10% margin, A$430M revenue - the price would be 3.30