Well, do we have a break out?
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Roughly after around 5 months ACW broke the trading range, mostly between mid 2 to mid 3. A welcome change.
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So what is the catalyst? There was an announcement on 6th Feb. But on 5th Feb on a very high volume it reached 3.4. The volume on 5th was very high, over 30m shares traded, and highest in nearly 5 months. But we got announcement on 6th. So was there a leak? Possible, I feel there are always some who know before others. Not unusual. Then after announcement on 6th, another high volume day, over 34m shares traded, and reached 3.5. This level 3.4/3.5 has been resistance for nearly 5 months. It looked that is it. The resistance mid 3s was a barrier. But another play happened.
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Next few days it reached 2.9, looked like another usual play of 3.4/3.5. But yesterday, it ran to 3.9, on a higher volume, but much lower than few days back, around 11m shares traded. Today, it touched 4, on another moderate volume of 10m shares traded, and is now playing with mid 3s, touched 3.5 today. So what was the reason for trading of last 2 days towards 4? I don't know. But can think of positive and negative scenario.
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Positive -
- Broke 5 month resistance of 3.4/3.5
- Reached 4c
- After initial news break on high volume, did a back test of 2.9 - chartists/gap players could be happy
- Now it is back testing previous resistance, but now support of 3.4/3.5
Negative -
- This rise from 3.5 to 4 has happened on moderate volume (10m) rather than high volume (30m around announcement)
- In previous play around 4 level in September, coming down from 5.5 high (not the big one which happened earlier, when it came down from 9.9 to 2.1, then went to 5.5, then came back), it played more than a week around 3.9/4 level before losing it. It was holding 3.6. Now it has been 2 days around 3.9/4 level, has reached 3.5. But the play is not yet finished, so still it is open to play around 3.5/4 level for few days and go up.
That's my numbers analysis/pattern. It may not mean anything. One news, one big player can change it all.
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Personally I have been watching, as this zone 3.5/4 to me is a buffer zone. I am not very strong on fundamental side. Is there any news expected (planned)? Anything unplanned can happen anytime, I understand that. So I am trying to read posts and announcements to understand. If this range holds, I will get in, just based on price action.
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So what could happen next week? Play in a new territory is happening. So that is one positive. It spent 5 months playing 2.5/3.5. A CR as well with oppies in between, but that effect I feel is not strong now as it happened sometime back. It would be good to get a boost from somewhere, any announcement, any big player, etc. That will keep the momentum. Will it do another back test around 3 level? Otherwise, a very interesting period coming up - which way will it go? I hope its on the upside. Enjoy your weekend and all the best.
(20min delay)