Seeing our Directors are somewhat recalcitrant in providing their outlook for 2026, I though I would get the ball rolling, of course that wont give their share price range but I'm not so constrained by the powers that be - Not financial advice - DYOR of course

Findi (ASX:FND) — 2026 Outlook: Scenarios, Valuation & Risks

Headline takeaway: If Findi executes on Indicash + BankIT + BC Max rollout, FY26 could deliver a clean re-rating from today’s ~6–7× EV/EBITDA toward Indian peer multiples of 10–12× — putting the share price in a base-case range of A$5.0–7.9.

FY25 Scorecard (Baseline)

• Revenue: A$75.5m (A$67.8m ex one-offs)

• EBITDA: A$31.4m (A$26.2m ex one-offs)

• NPBT: ~A$6m (ex-Piramal redemption)

• Net cash: A$30.2m at year-end

Strategic moves in 2025:

• Indicash acquisition (Tata): +4,600 WLAs (+3,000 warehoused). Deal guide: FY26 revenue A$28–30m, EBITDA A$5–7m.

• BankIT acquisition: ~130,000 merchants, building digital rails across India.

• BC Max pilot: 25 co-branded centres with CBI, now scaling to 250 with thousands targeted over 2 years.

• ATM interchange uplift: RBI raised fees from ₹17 to ₹19 per transaction (effective 1 May 2025). Company flagged >A$5.5m NPAT benefit in FY26, >A$10m in FY27.

• $40m placement (Mar-25) + $9.5m loan notes (Aug-25) to fund rollouts.

2026 Outlook — Scenario Ranges

Assumptions: full-year Indicash contribution, BankIT first full year, fee uplift flows, staged BC Max + new bank ATMs.

Scenario	FY26 Revenue (A$ m)	FY26 EBITDA (A$ m)	FY26 NPAT (A$ m)	Price Range (10–12× EV/EBITDA)
Bear	90 – 100	20 – 26	2 – 6	$3.7 – $5.5
Base	105 – 125	28 – 38	8 – 14	$5.0 – $7.9
Bull	130 – 150	40 – 55	16 – 25	$7.0 – $11.2

Current position: At ~$3.6, the stock is on ~6–7× trailing EV/EBITDA, a discount to Indian comps (~10–12×).

Catalysts to Watch

• Rollout cadence: net ATMs/BC Max sites live.

• Unit economics: transactions/ATM/month with ₹19 fee uplift.

• BankIT monetisation: active merchants, take-rates, cross-sell attach.

• India IPO prep: structure and timeline (Rothschild, DAM, Ambit advising).

• Integration synergies: Delhi office consolidation, Indicash + BankIT efficiencies.

Key Risks

• Execution: scaling thousands of ATMs/centres in 2 years.

• Integration: bedding down Indicash & BankIT.

• Competition: banks, Paytm, PhonePe, Google Pay pressure on pricing.

• Regulatory: RBI compliance as they transition to payments bank.

• Capital needs: future raises/dilution if growth outpaces cash flows.

My Take

FND is a high-operating-leverage growth story: the revenue base is expanding, the ATM fee uplift is real, and management is pushing hard toward a 2026 India IPO. Execution is the swing factor.

• Bear case: stock tracks sideways in A$3.7–5.5.

• Base case: re-rate to A$5.0–7.9 if execution is steady.

• Bull case: faster rollout + BankIT upside = A$7.0–11.2.

At today’s ~A$3.6, the risk/reward skews positive if management hits even the mid-case.

General info only, not financial advice. DYOR.

Tear this down if you like, but be constructive lets add some value to the punters here