20c + close and we have a breakout - Target 27-30c, page-39

loved the IF Craig retires lol!

I think it's fair to assume 200$coal through Q1, then question becomes what's the new the marginal power/coal supply for ... say next 2 years... 100$? Discussion is little use without a strong view on power/gas/coal S/D 2 years out.

FWIW, I'm shooting for exiting most my coal positions after Q1 earnings, at what I hope will be "peak optimism" or some new "new normal" proclaimed by mainstream pundits, basically if coal equities re-rate broadly. I'm being conservative and not counting on a dividend, but who knows.

Then yeah, 1.5AUD would be something like 7x PE...
But the risk reward to hold deteriorates way before that - and I don't have a strong view on coal supply response - so I'm planning to unload before, at least half of the position.

That is, if the base-case we all kinda-have in mind plays out (normal winter; no f*ups in Plan-B refinancing).

And let's not forget the party W1 is throwing at 1$.


**not financial advice, just happy ramblings**