That kind of reasoning works on a stock, not on futures.
You implicitly assume that the whole market is punters, which is most often not.
Consumption happens in the prompt and drives prompt prices.
If future is -say- 10$ higher and the cost of storage is $4, a physical buyer would buy spot, sell future and pocked risk-free profit (excluding operational risks...).
That's a carry trade and it's a very powerful driver of prices and drives most commodity markets, and much easier to allocate capital to that than a pure speculative trade.
Depending on the product you can have more/less carry and more/less speculators or forward hedges, but it's the structure that drives future prices, not the other way around.
Again, depends which product you're talking, but structure and storage comes first.
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Last
18.5¢ |
Change
0.000(0.00%) |
Mkt cap ! $148.1M |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
19.5¢ | 19.5¢ | 18.5¢ | $88.92K | 470.7K |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
2 | 149945 | 18.5¢ |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
19.0¢ | 89565 | 4 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
2 | 149945 | 0.185 |
18 | 714892 | 0.180 |
8 | 259584 | 0.175 |
19 | 288154 | 0.170 |
5 | 313095 | 0.165 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
0.190 | 14000 | 1 |
0.195 | 228907 | 3 |
0.200 | 750549 | 9 |
0.205 | 127448 | 5 |
0.210 | 419422 | 12 |
Last trade - 16.10pm 09/08/2024 (20 minute delay) ? |
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