Share
1,166 Posts.
lightbulb Created with Sketch. 7
clock Created with Sketch.
02/10/14
06:21
Share
Originally posted by kray
↑
Just shaking my head looking at the hope-ium at the AGO thread. This thing is turning into pure hope now and not much fundamentals.
The company costs are at the $80ish per tonne, even if prices goes back to that level AGO won't be making much dough to cover the market cap. Risk vs reward is better elsewhere. As someone that has worked in iron ore for awhile, this september is not the same as the previous ones. The stockpile at port is at historical highs, supply is increasing, steel prices are sinking, chinese property is down. The mills didn't restock before the week long chinses national holiday period. The high quality competiion (BHP/RIO) squeezing out AGO products. Etc etc
If you have lost money on this one and holding on hope, good luck. Serious doubts linger over this company going forward even if the stars does align. Massive chinese stimulus inducing steel consumption incoming? Short holders SURELY must cover soon? Mill restocking soon? Company at historical lows? Things can always get worse, can this one ride out the storm? Might be worthwhile to read all the news good and bad, I have heard some stuff about the company and its employees, abit sad to see people in the industry suffering.
Take a deep breath, have a cup of wine and think about the money you have got on this one.
Expand
Iron ore price up nearly a $1...
ROY Hill view (in my mind)
12Mt (AGO current production) *$10 (saving through rail/port) * 6 years = $720M
Development cost - spur c$250M
value $480M
plus
+ option on Mcphee/ Miralga and others
+ additional port allocation etc
+ whatever value can be attributed to AGO's current operation (without rail) - most brokers >$450-$550M
DYOR
I