22 apr

12 more days to GSK reporting Relenza sales. Will our talented CEO be watching the GSK broadcast or will he be sipping the most expensive French Champagne financed from BTA’s Coffers oblivious to the announcement.

Let us reflect on the possible result.

Japan:
What was announced:
0.4 million packs will be imported in February, 0.6 million packs in March and 1 million packs in April. GSK originally prepared 3 million packs of Relenza to meet the requirement for half the prescriptions of anti-influenza virus drugs in an average year.
The additional importation of Relenza will enable GSK to maintain a stable supply.

What we don’t know:
How much of the original 3million packs were sold and reported in BTA’s 1H result ending 31 Dec 08 in one of the most severe Northern hemisphere flu-season?

Don’t forget the original 3 mill pack was sufficient to meet 50% of an average year total antiviral prescriptions. What was Relenza’s previous market share of Japan antiviral?
Put simply GSK had originally planned for certain % of unsold Relenza as stock (50% of the number of total prescriptions less Relenza actual market share). Similarly the planned additional import is presumed to be over and above what GSK expects to sell and this explains their statement “The additional importation of Relenza will enable GSK to maintain a stable supply”

We have to guess
how much remain from the original 3million packs and how many will be sold by 31 March.
How much of the additional 0.4million imported in Feb plus 0.6 million in March will be sold by 31 March or and how much is for stocks not forgetting another 1 mill to be imported in Apr?

UK Order:
What was announced:
Peter Cook estimated the UK contract may represent royalty income of up to $18
Million but was very evasive to provide a timeline.

Given the UK contract was announced on 31 January 09 and it span a period of say 2 to possibly 3 years or longer, we have to guess if any of the UK contract will be booked when the book close on 31 March. Nil is my guess.

Any Orders I missed?
I have not heard of any other announced orders, have we?

Anyone brave enough to take a stab in the dark to guess the coming sale figures?