.222890 hardman shares, page-4

Posted this on TMF last night based on similar discussion...

I don't think we need to worry too much about the conversion cap. There's been some enormous buyers sitting on 2.02 for the last few days - which I can only put down to Tullow as the rational choice. During closing this afternoon, the u-boat (undisclosed buyer) was worked out to be a buyer of about 73 million shares.

I'm guessing that by the time it reaches decision time in December, Tullow would have accummulated more than their fair share of Hardman. Assuming a 50% take up rate by then, we'd be left with about 365 million shares, which if converted, equates to be about 82 million Tullow shares. That would result in 80% pro-rata conversion rate if all of those shares are to be converted. The other factor to take into account is that there will be some instos (such as ML, Westpac, etc) who are holding Hardman as part of their index tracking fund. The minute Hardman is delisted from the ASX200 index, they will most likely cash out and not convert to a holding in a UK-listed only company.

Just my opinion of course.

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