I think that's a possibility alf... It's quite a conumdrum for...

I think that's a possibility alf... It's quite a conumdrum for the Biden/Fed duo.

Watch the 10 Year Treasury, while correlating it with the USD. The USD should go up because it has a positive interest rate compared to everywhere safe. It's that yield that will appeal to foreign instos and governments; thereby foreign money will pour in; another upward pressure on the USD. However, the USD is on a definite downward trajectory.

A higher Fed rate will make the US debt's interest rate payments almost insurmountable in simply covering JUST the interest payments. Therefore a lower USD exchange rate makes the US debt more palatable to outside buyers, while maintaining a relatively positive yield. (NB: foreign instos must calculate exchange risk versus hedging costs, making a measly return thinner.)

So higher USD means EDE takes more AUD by virtue of the exchange rate. A lower USD lessens EDE's take home pay.

So... I don't know whether it breaks up or down. The poorly detailed forces above paint two different outcomes.

Regardless, the potential extra/new/surprise money for EDE grows. Depending on size it may neutralize any negative forex impact. Conversely, a lower USD will put upside risk on EDE when exchanged to AUD.

OV