Crude is a tough game to play because OPEC govts trade derivatives in very large quantities to satisfy customer demands. This is how they make majority of their income from the product.
If they want to sell to China at sub 30% contract prices from September for example then they will sell calls and buy puts..thats not to say China know this and they also hold derivative contracts. Between Russia, Saudi Arabia, Iran and China rest of the world has no chance to play in this field.
OPEC is not called a cartel for nothing.
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