24/01 Week, page-630

But the big mistake you and everybody else makes is you are plotting these long term trends on the linear chart. You need to do that on the log chart to get the true picture of yoy gains. Below is the log charts of the All Ords. The gain of there (slope) is 4.5% p.a. But you have to add to that a compounding 4.8% dividend which just doubles the slope without changing anything else. According to this chart we need to be near the upper resistance line to get a crash unless something is seriously wrong with the economy. The only thing wrong with the economy is demand is outstripping supply which is causing supply chain bottlenecks and shortages. This means producers and transporters will have to produce and deliver twice as much to meet demand. Is that a bad thing? As far as I can see its going to be bumper revenue, bumper profits and boom, boom, boom. Besides the usual market shakeout to get mums & dads to dump all their stocks near the low. So maybe we will get to the top resistance in a year or two before the next crash happens? Will central banks really hike rates to avoid inflation and send all the mortgage slaves to the wall? I don't think so. That's what's different this time. They are going to let inflation rip as a wealth equalizer and increase wages & welfare to compensate. With run away inflation markets don't crash, they go parabolic. i.e. they break the resistance line on the log chart. Only cash is toxic.