I just cant see any reason for a crash with US companies doing so well and expecting to do better (see here). We also have the pandemic ending and low unemployment because of baby boomers retiring on mass. I also think interest rates will be kept low for some time, increasing demand for stocks and fueling the boom. The S&P500 PE ratio has also come down to more reasonable levels and is fair value for this low interest rate environment. So I think any selloff should be considered as a shakeout and will be short lived. The chart below shows where I think we are now - boom decade ahead of us. This is because that was the last time in history when there was more jobs than there was people willing to to do them and we has to import workers and workers and unions were unafraid to ask for pay increases. The boom times ended in 1987 when Keating put interest rates up to 17% (thr ersession we had to have). That is a long way off from where we are now. Markets love inflationary times. Yes, prices go up but wages go up more and the attitude is "spend now before the price goes up". I don't rule out that the shakeout may not be over yet. So I am 75% invested. If the shakeout does not come, there is always the May dip to go all in. I now take a 12 month view of the market. I'm pretty certain this year will not end lower than where we are now. In the long term, markets always go up.
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