Hi Rav,
Any idea why the market cap data you had originally does not include all 3b share issued?
A few thoughts.
- If different data sources return different results, then unless we know which data source VanEck is using we really need to stick to the obvious ones. Ie the ones that dip way below 75m (if they
were previously in the fund) or way over 150m (if they
were not previously in the fund).
- The key date for this rebalance is 30 Nov (rather than 31 Aug). The reason I asked for a range between 31 Aug and 30 Nov is to calculate the variance in SP (now I think about it, it should be 1 Sept->30 Nov...apologies). This is really only relevant to those stocks staying in the fund. 30 Nov is the key date for anyone being added or removed. It is literally the closing price on that day that determines their fate.
- As the rebalance is quarterly the key dates for adding/removing from the fund is 30 Nov, 28/29 Feb, 31 May, 31 Aug.
- The ranges relevant to stocks staying in the fund is the variance in market caps from 3 months prior. ie: 1 Sept->30 Nov, 1 Dec ->28/29 Feb, 1 March -> 31 May, 1 June ->31 Aug
- Van Eck use the USD equivalent, so for any Aussie listed miners, we will need to apply an FX conversion to those caps. Just looking at yahoo data (i dont know how reliable that is) but the conversion on 30 Nov for AUDUSD seems to be 0.7184. Are you able to add a column to show that?
eg:
|
Column 1 |
Column 2 |
Column 3 |
Column 4 |
Column 5 |
Column 6 |
Column 7 |
Column 8 |
Column 9 |
| 1 |
Symbol |
Name |
AUD Cap 1 Sept |
USD Cap 1 Sept |
AUD Cap 30 Nov |
USD CAP 30 Nov |
|
USD Variance |
% USD Variance |
| 2 |
OGC |
Oceanagold Corporation |
$ 1,538,119,037 |
$ 1,093,602,635 |
$1,544,150,876 |
$1,115,649,008 |
|
$ 22,046,373 |
2.0%
|
In this example the 2 critical columns are in bold.
1. USD Cap 30 Nov decides if the stock is added/removed from the fund,
2. %USD Variance indicates how much the stock may be re-balanced,
however, is only relevant when comparing to all stocks in the fund, including those in US, Canada etc. Otherwise there is no way to know whether Van Eck will be buying or selling. Some are obvious like RRL +34% but the others are more borderline. Regardless you only want to trade the outliers anyway as this a) gives you the best move, and b) reduces the risk of being wrong.
Hope that helps,
cheers.
