$25 a carat.... bang on the money.

After all the BS and hype, my "no idea" forecast of $25 a carat was bang on (I was off 79c on the high side). Low grades and low $$$ per carat makes this a loss making venture IMHO. Marginal at best.

This is going to get hammered on open. Its basically not worth anything IMHO. Hate to se people lose money, but listen to both sides of the story. $300 per carat was NEVER going to happen.

It was all there in the posts.................

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So lets crunch some numbers. Approx 6,000,000 carats were sold, of which approx 200,000 sold for $300-$600 per carat. That's about 3%. 97% sold for about $9 per carat.​

Across all carats, the average price is about $25 a carat. I would think that's about right for MUS. Even if you say MUS get 50% more per carat, its still only $37.5 a carat.​

If you think MUS is going to somehow only mine this selective 3% and get $300 a carat, then you have carats in your head IMHO.​

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This slide from 2015 made no sense....​

The grade is 24 times worse than GEM and less than half the value per carat.... so about 50 TIMES less than GEM per cubic metre.​

Maybe I'm just a simpleton....​

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My point is nothing seems to add up.... so at no point would I have faith in any numbers the company gives, especially future revenue figures.​

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I was reading some information from GIA about the MRM deposit which I found interesting. People seem to be quoting this "secondary deposits are higher quality" mantra. Well, it seems that is actually not true, and they seem to varying a lot in in yield and quality.​

Take it for what you will. I'm not trying to downramp. I hold no stock and have no spare cash to do so at any price. Maybe this has been discussed before (I haven't been following MUS for long) so apologies if it has. ​

Hopefully some people find the below of value.​

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PRODUCTION​

As part of its bulk sampling operation, MRM has handled around 1.8 million tons of rock at Montepuez, recovering approximately 8 million carats of ruby and sapphire of various colors. The company hopes to double its capacity to 3.6 million tons of rock in 2015 and eventually increase that figure to 10 million tons of rock a year.​

The actual recovery of ruby in the secondary deposits is more difficult to predict. The amount of ruby per ton can vary dramatically, and so can the quality of the rubies recovered. For example, the recovery rate in Mugloto pit 3 is relatively low: 0.60–1 gram per ton of ore processed. Yet the pit yields high-quality ruby, making it economically advantageous to sample, even with the low recovery rate. This pit also produces some large rough crystals of 6–8 grams. For comparison, Maninge Nice has a higher recovery rate of 20–35 grams per ton, but generally produces much lower-value material.​

Overall, the recovery rate for the primary deposit is around 162 carats per ton, while the secondary deposits produce 31 carats per ton. The figure for the secondary deposits includes only processed gravels and not the amount of overburden topsoil moved.​

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Uncle Buck... what did I say? MUS have no primary deposits, they have secondary. I didn't say it was a bad thing or a good thing. What's your problem?​

Frankly, if you bothered to do YOUR due diligence, you would know MUS is quoting grades of 0.3ct per vs GEM with over 8ct per. Everyone seems to be smoking the "but the value per carat will be so much better" cigar, yet MUS's own presentations originally estimate only half the value per carat vs GEM....​

Yes, having a "heart" does carry responsibility.... to paint both sides and not be a Fanboy. I did the same with CDU.... how did that go?​

Good luck with your investment.... I think you are going to need some.​

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eriously, who quotes grades including overburden? What is this, mining amateur hour?​

Just to recap, you have company that...​

* Dug for Diamonds they can't sell.​

* Talk about production/revenue etc without a JORC​

* Have specials that apparently aren't of "material value"​

* Have 6 months until unknown $$ from sales, and have quarterly cash burn that will not last 6 months but apparently don't to raise capital​

* Compare their deposits to their neighbour, but use a different calculation on the grade.... because?​

* Have not yet developed a method for knowing what there mind product is worth​

* Apparently they know the grade/size of the specials but they are not willing to release this information.​

At what point does any of the above raise alarm bells?​

I'm happy to be advised otherwise, but it would appear to me that there is the possibility of at least 1 breach of ASX rules in the above list.​

Look... maybe they will find better deposits, maybe they will have an awesome profitable mine, maybe I'm a random nutter....​

Do yourself a favour and at least take this on board, take the blinkers off... understand the risks... don't bet the house.​

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