According to the International Energy Agency global electricity consumption will rise 75 percent to 35,300 terawatt hours by 2035 from 2008?s 20,183 terawatt hours.
If we shut down all the reactors under construction - if we never put another nuclear reactor online - we would still need 25% more uranium than is being mined. But emerging markets are driving growth in nuclear power and a major building boom is underway for nuclear capacity.
Each GWe of increased capacity (enough electricity to power one million homes) will require about 200 tU/yr of extra mine production and each reactor about 400-600 tU for the first fuel load.
The World Nuclear Association (WNA) predicted a 33% increase in uranium demand between 2010 and 2020 ? that?s a minimum 58% (25% current mined deficit + 33% demand increase) increase needed in mined uranium by 2020.
The U.S. produces 27 percent of the world?s nuclear power, has 104 operating nuclear reactors and needs about 50-55 million pounds (Mlb) of uranium per year. But the country produces only 4 Mlb of uranium. The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, on April 21, renewed the operating licenses for the Palo Verde Nuclear Generating Station in Arizona - the US?s largest atomic plant - for an additional 20 years.
The U.S. Department of Energy dedicated a new research facility on May 3, 2011, that will accelerate the advancement of nuclear reactor technology. The Consortium for Advanced Simulation of Light Water Reactors (CASL) will use supercomputers to ?study the performance of light water reactors and to develop highly sophisticated modeling that will help accelerate upgrades at existing U.S. nuclear plants.?
"Nuclear energy is our nation's largest source of carbon-free power and is an important part of our energy mix moving forward. Work done at this facility will help make our fleet of reactors even safer and more efficient while creating jobs, fueling the economy and saving consumers money on their utility bills." U.S. Secretary of Energy Steven Chu
It seems to this author that uranium supplies are going to get very tight and there will be fierce competition for available material in both the spot and long term markets.
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