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here is a more detailed estimate is based on info from
"Investor Presentation"
At 30sept13
211,000 customers (72%, 28%)
$70m ACMRevenue (54%, 46%)
A) Partners:
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72% x 211,000 = 152,0000
54% x 70m = $37.8m
Average ACMR = NZ$24 each
Av price increase ( say in Oz) = AU11 = NZ12
12/24 = 50%
*The increase in ACMR is est at 25% to 30%,
after paying some commission to partners.
(price increases depend on partners' status
- gold/siler in Nov14,
- others, in mid Dec13)
B)Direct Response Customers -
from Radio, Google, Facebook, pamphlets, CA magazines etc
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28% x 211,000 = 59,000
46% x 70m = $32.2m
Av ACMR = $54 each
(Price increase starts in mid Dec13)
Summary Points
1.
Xero says it is expecting 80% growth ,
for 1Oct13-30Sep14 period.
2. Partners at 30/9/13 = 8,800
Potential customers for Xero conversion
= 1m to 2 million,
from these 8800 partners alone.
I expect it to double to 16,000 by Sep14.
At the moment each partner has brought in 18 customers each.
158,000/8800 = 18.
Or if we take 80/20 rule , or 95/35 rule,
(8800 x top 35% = 3080
158,000 x 95% = 150,000),
then
Gold and silver partners (with 200 to 500 clients base) bring in 48 clients each
150,000/3080 =48
*That means there is plenty of room for millions of customers' conversions from partners clients who are now using MYOB/Sage/Quickbook, in Oz, UK an USA.
3.
Add 80% generic growth
+ Price increases (25% to 30%)
+ Expected growth in partners numbers (in USA, UK and OZ),
then ACMR can double from $70m to $140m
5 Nasdaq listing is on target from 4th qtr 2014,
if mgt chose to do so.
(Perhaps someone else like to analyse the numbers for
each country )
have fun !
dyor.
pg 8,9 17-21
www.xero.com/nz/about/investors/reports/
