26/09 Indices, page-35

I'm not buying into the XJO just yet.

Inflation. Interest rates. Recession. The media today is full of the same old recession drivel that it regurgitates every day, day after day after day. If a looming recession was the cause of the current correction then the recession would have been priced in long ago. I think that the real reason why there are still so many sellers is because of the possibility that Mad Vlad will soon escalate to using nukes.

Putin has been threatening nukes since the start of the war. The question that players need to ask is "Has Putin completely lost his marbles?" At some point Putin will have to either press the button or end the war. If he doesn't do either of these things then his credibility will eventually run out and even his own people will stop taking him seriously. The sham referendums in Ukraine should see Putin being forced to either push the button or give up or accept that defeat will be inevitable. In my opinion, there is at most only two weeks left until he has to decide.

If Putin does press the button then there will be much bigger market falls, ten times bigger if not armageddon. If there are no nukes in the next two weeks, then the next big rally can begin.