27.5m ulcers treated in 2010

Well here we go, some data we can look at as per the below report - article. These are for treated ulcers and we know that the likes of India, who would have nearly as many untreated ulcers going around, could add to the numbers mentioned. A cost and treatment effective alternative could help add to these figures quite dramatically, especially if governments from emerging economies look to make such treatments more accessible through funding support.

The full report for the below costs $3500, so if anyone wants to stump up:)

So for 27.5m treated ulcers, recorded ones anyway, we could quite easily have a look at what a world-wide percentage penetration could look like for VitroGro, remembering again that this is just for Venus, Diabetic and Pressure ulcers, nothing to do with every other application and treatment pegged for VitroGro use. Below is a simple breakdown of market penetration numbers and I'll paste my previously posted "what if" figures to get a grasp of what could be happening here, especially considering TIS are aiming for VitroGro to be the Gold Standard of treatment:

1. 5% of 27.5m market would be 1.375m patients treated.
2. 10% of 27.5m market would be 2.75m patients treated
3. 20% of 27.5m market would be 5.4m patients treated
4. 30% of 27.5m market would be 8.1m patients treated


*****The figures I had paste in a previous post, these are just ones I have used for myself to try and grasp what may be, please treat them as such because there are many factors involved for this to happen and % earned will probably be different and cash burn may change, though I have tried to keep them conservative and realistic*****


We know the estimated cost given to us was between US$30 - $40 per treatment, so split the difference and we get US$35 per treatment. Our current trials are for 12 weeks, now we know that the one dose per week vs 2 dose per week is a part of this trial but let's say just one per week, so:

ULCER TREATMENTS ONLY
12 treatments x US$35 = $420.00
Let's say that TIS only get 15% of this total cost as profit = US$63 profit, so:


500,000 patients treated = US$31.5m profit
Take out $5m cash burn & 15% tax (due to claims) = US$22.52m
$22.52 divide 140m shares = $0.16 EPS (this could be doubled if twice a week treatment is reccommended)

10 x PE = $1.60 (bearish market, no growth factored imo)
15 x PE = $2.40 (standard PE, no real growth factored imo)
20 x PE = $3.20 (growth factored, may only be 1 yr looking forward imo)


1,000,000 patients treated = US$63m profit
Take out $5m cash burn & 20% (higher) tax (due to claims) = US$46.4m
$46.4m divide 140m shares = $0.35 EPS (this could be doubled if twice a week treatment is reccommended)

10 x PE = $3.50 (bearish market, no growth factored imo)
15 x PE = $5.25 (standard PE, no real growth factored imo)
20 x PE = $7.00 (growth factored, may only be 1 yr looking forward imo)


2,000,000 patients treated = US$126m profit
Take out $5m cash burn & 30% full tax (no more claims?) = US$84.7m
$84.7m divide 140m shares = $0.61 EPS (this could be doubled if twice a week treatment is reccommended)

10 x PE = $6.10 (bearish market, no growth factored imo)
15 x PE = $9.15 (standard PE, no real growth factored imo)
20 x PE = $12.20 (growth factored, may only be 1 yr looking forward imo)

PRICES ARE FOR ONCE WEEKLY TREATMENT - COULD BE TWICE



***** THE ARTICLE*****


Advanced Wound Care Management to 2016

The Global Advanced Wound Management Market is Forecast to Reach $3.7 billion in 2016

Online PR News ? 25-February-2011 ?The global advanced wound management market is forecast to reach $3.7 billion by 2016, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.5% during the period 2009-2016. The advanced wound management market is expected to be primarily driven by an increase in incidence of chronic wounds, a growing elderly population across the globe and greater adoption of technological advancements by surgeons and patients. In 2010, there are approximately 11 million venous ulcers, 11.3 million diabetic ulcers and 5.2 million pressure ulcers in the world requiring treatment, which will provide ample opportunities for advanced wound management products to penetrate into the market.

The growth is being driven by advancement in technology and products that are more clinically efficient and cost effective than their conventional counterparts. As technology advances, clinicians gain the ability to select dressings that simplify the selection process by providing multiple features and benefits. These products take less time to heal wounds when compared with low cost traditional wound care products, thereby reducing the hospital and healthcare professional?s bills, which account for a substantial portion of the total patient billing. According to the United Nations Population Division, people aged 60 and over are projected to account for 22% of the total world population by 2050, up from 11% in 2007, which will drive growth in the advanced wound management market. A new set of technologies and products are making an entry into the market with the aim of improving wound care management. Technological advancements, such as improvements in synthetic dressing materials and newer technologies, such as recombinant growth factors, endovascular arterial repair techniques, bi-layered human dermal substitutes and xenogeneic tissue scaffolds are expected to have a positive impact on the advanced wound management market.

GBI Research?s report, ?Advanced Wound Management to 2016 ? Increased Adoption of Advanced Wound Management for Chronic Wounds and Diabetes to Drive the Market? provides key data, information and analysis on the global advanced wound management market. The report provides market landscape, competitive landscape and market trends information on seven advanced wound management market categories ? Semi-permeable films, Foams, Hydrofibers, Hydrocolloids, Hydrogels, Alginates and Collagens. The report provides comprehensive information on the key trends affecting these categories, and key analytical content on the market dynamics. The report also reviews the competitive landscape and a detailed analysis of the pipeline products in each category. The report also reviews details about important merger and acquisition deals that have taken place in the advanced wound management market during the past three years. This report is built using data and information sourced from proprietary databases, primary and secondary research and in-house analysis by GBI Research?s team of industry experts.

http://www.onlineprnews.com/news/110691-1298627018-advanced-wound-care-management-to-2016.html


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All of this is just my personal opinion only:)