I was looking at the valuation of shale gas reserves from some of the broker reports on the BPT website and an important point is the difference between gas in place and recoverable gas. From what I have read this tends to be about 15-30% of the gas in place so if we had 80 tcf of gas in place and recoverable gas is about 20% this would give us about 16 tcf which is a pretty decent sort of size of gas reserve.
Again from the broker reports I have been reading they value static gas recoverable at about A$0.2 GJ. 1 GJ equates to about 1000 cubic feet (you might want to check that -but that is what I could see from the websites I looked at) so if they do have a 16 tcf recoverable reserve that would value the shale gas reserve at about;
(16,000,000,000,000/1000)*A$0.2 = A$3.2 Billion, so it would add more like $3 dollars a share to the valuation.
So would $3.80 be a good share price.
This is pretty rough and obviously depends on a lot of other factors, but we will find out soon enough.
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