I think TR is right, the posts that challenge your thinking are the most valuable. It's the same with any investment decision. It is easy to get caught in confirmation bias: overemphasising the positive and ignoring or reflex dismissing the negative. The negative helps test an investment hypothesis. The positive just reinforces it.
As far the talent/client equation goes, it is a well known dynamic in any professional service firm under strain. Talent/clients are harder to attract and retain when in SGH situation: making losses, constant bad news, deep in debt. There has been nothing in news about the facts of this happening at SGH other than speculation, and the mention of some SGH staff joining in the Class Action. By the time this sort of thing in the news, it's probably too late. It would be bordering on delusional, in my view, to imagine that there has been no talent/client effect at SGH - how much effect is a matter of debate. One of the advantages at SGH is that most clients are small and most legal talent is fairly low-level doing process work.
The evidence so far is that somehow SGH is going to survive, but that isn't the same as saying the shares are going up. The company is probably worth less than the face value of debt $800m which, if true, renders the shares worth very little, while it may be still a going concern.
And nobody is suggesting you should sell your shares, why do you keep saying that. People posting on HC have different sentiments, nobody is saying what to do. You've every right to be very attached to your SGH holding and make profits or losses accordingly. You're not telling people to buy either.
There are a lot of people posting here who have been in since the $2-plus range obviously now sitting on big losses. Others who average in in the 20c to 30c range sitting on some gains. So there are losers and winners in the longs. The collective short profit in this stock over the last 12 and a bit months is hundreds millions, larger than the current market cap. So shorts selling - and Rob Terry of Quindell with his $60m profit selling out - are by far the biggest winners here. Shorts over last month also doing very well. 30 August FY results, which may cast some new light, are still a way off.
SGH Price at posting:
40.5¢ Sentiment: Sell Disclosure: Not Held