29 Feb will be bad news... but how bad is the question. It's priced for a very bad situation already, so basically anything that indicates cash is starting / about to come rolling in and that lenders are persisting is good news.
There is high probability of non-cash impairments. Everyone knows this. Key will be long term if their EBITDAW excluding the impairments is sufficient to pay down debts in the future healthily.
Also key will be how they present info. There needs to be a lot more clarity around Guidance, cash flows and well lets be honest everything. They need to build trust in the numbers again. An ASIC tick would help a lot too. Will be hard for them to give any guidance on UK legislation as nothing is really in effect yet.
Basically it will be an exercise in seeing how they communicate to the market and how much the market sentiment has got it wrong or right. At the moment it is priced for a very dire situation so I would say more risk to the upside now. The more time goes by the more it appears that they have the support of lenders so wouldn't be surprised to see the shorts reduce exposure before the announcement.
Without a doubt a high risk, high reward scenario.
SGH Price at posting:
61.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
A personalised tool to help users track selected stocks. Delivering real-time notifications on price updates, announcements, and performance stats on each to help make informed investment decisions.
(20min delay)