29th December 2023
Friday
On Friday, 29th December 2023, the financial markets are anticipatingthe release of two key economic indicators: the Spanish Flash Consumer PriceIndex (CPI) year-over-year and the Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI).These announcements are expected to provide significant insights into thecurrent economic conditions in Spain and the Chicago region, respectively.EUR - Spanish Flash CPIy/y
Consumer pricesconstitute a major portion of overall inflation. Inflation plays a crucial rolein currency valuation, as escalating prices prompt central banks to increaseinterest rates, adhering to their mandate to contain inflation.
In November 2023, Spainexperienced a reduction in its year-on-year consumer price inflation rate,which fell to 3.2% from 3.5% in the preceding month, as indicated bypreliminary data. This decline, marking the lowest inflation rate since August,was largely driven by decreased prices in fuel and tourist packages. Theinflation rate for food and non-alcoholic beverages also showed signs ofeasing. Moreover, the core inflation rate, excluding the volatile sectors offood and energy, declined to 4.5% from October's 5.2%, reaching its lowestpoint since April 2022.
The forecast for theSpanish Flash Consumer Price Index (CPI) year-over-year indicates a modestreduction, with expectations of a decrease from the previous rate of 3.2% to3.0%.
The release of theSpanish Flash Consumer Price Index (CPI) year-over-year is scheduled for 08:00AM GMT on Friday, 29th December 2023.
USD - Chicago PMI
The Chicago PurchasingManagers' Index (PMI) is a pivotal economic indicator derived from a survey ofapproximately 200 purchasing managers in the Chicago area. This survey queriesrespondents to evaluate the relative state of business conditions across varioussectors, encompassing employment, production, new orders, prices, supplierdeliveries, and inventories. As a leading indicator of economic health, theChicago PMI is highly valued because businesses often respond swiftly tochanging market conditions, and their purchasing managers possess some of themost up-to-date and pertinent insights into the company's perspective on theeconomy.
The Chicago BusinessBarometer, also known as the Chicago PMI, had climbed to 55.8 in November 2023from 44 in the previous month, surpassing market forecasts of 45.4. Thisincrease revealed the first month of growth in Chicago's economic activitysince August 2022, presenting a solid overall expansion. Production hadimproved by 15.9 points to 62.4, reaching its highest level since December2021, and new orders had risen by 12.5 points, marking the second consecutivemonth-on-month increase, driven by stronger demand. Additionally, inventorieshad entered expansion for the first time since March 2023, as firms scaled up forhigher production, while order backlogs remained in contraction. Concurrently,employment had advanced by 3.7 points to 53.9, the highest since July 2022. Interms of price development, prices paid remained largely unchanged, decreasingmarginally by 0.2 points to 59.9, and stayed below the levels observed for themajority of the past three years.
TL;DR
Indicator
November 2023 Value
Change from Previous Month
Notable Information
1 Chicago PMI
55.8
+11.8 points
First Growth Since August 2022
2 Production
62.4
+15.9 points
Highest Level Since December 2021
3 New Orders
Increased (12.5 points)
Second Consecutive Increase
Driven by Stronger Demand
4 Inventories
Entered Expansion
First Expansion Since March 2023
5 Order Backlogs
Remained in Contraction
No Change
6 Employment
53.9
+3.7 points
Highest Since July 2022
7 Prices Paid
59.9
-0.2 points
Below Levels of Past Three Years
The forecast for theChicago PMI suggests a decrease, projecting a decline from the previous figureof 55.8 to 50.
The upcoming release ofthe Chicago PMI is scheduled for 2:45 PM GMT on Friday, 29th December 2023.
