2bln jorc coal target, page-10

Val,
As you know I have an interest in BND as well as other hopefuls. BND have Sth Galilee about 100km to the NE of Blackall. In their ASX release 4/3/11 they show their coal specs as 13% ash, 16% moisture and 6250Kcal adb. At this spec they would, I estimate, command a price of 6250/6750= 93% of Newcastle Benchmark on energy alone (probably also a moisture penalty). 6750 kcal is Newcastle Benchmark I am told). I think I read somewhere that Adani a further 200km north are expecting 5500kcal.
Based on the raw coal spec on EER's website the best they can do is 17% ash, 19% moisture and 17.7Mj/Kg (=4230Kcal) adb. It is my estimate that should you wash this down to a 13% ash you will get around 4430Kcal. This product would command a price of 4430/6750= 66% of benchmark.(plus a moisture hit)
Given the extra distance for rail and the Capex involved to build the extra rail I can't see an export mine being viable even a shallow O/C with low op costs.
Having said that, a great place for a power station to feed west Qld, Mt Isa and Galilee if you can find the water!

Have I missed something or are my calcs flawed?