2H FY2020

Hi all.

another nasty day of value destruction, despite rising gold prices, seems to have been since AUG 19

Having spent 6 working days trying to get BT to answer the telephone I thought Id do some maths to look at the second half of FY 2020 as per the latest presentation and reports

My focus was to again look at guidance (production and AISC ) taking into account tthe hedge book all of which was announced in late 2018 for all producing assets, Gwalia, Simberi and Atlantic
Aim is  to estimate theworst  profit  using worst case AISC during the last half and guidance , bad exchange rates and

ACTUALS
production 182000 OZ done in 1H 2020
Gwalia 80175
Simberi 50131
Atlantic 51422

LOWEST PRODUCTION GUIDANCE IN PLACE FOR FY 2020
Gwalia 170K
Simberi 105K
Atlantic 95K

So estimates for second half production using lowest current guidance

Gwalia 89825
Simberi 54869
Atlantic 44578

COSTS
I am using the highest costs printed in the first half or e highest guided costs for the year, whichever is greater, the worst possible, so applying costs worst case to gwalia as well.

	Column 1	Column 2	Column 3	Column 4
0	AISC guidance FY 2020	1H AISC AUD	guided top	highest
1	gwalia	1513	1540	1540
2	simberi	1717	1645	1717
3	atlantic	887	955	955

GOld price
USD 90 DMA is about 1536, so assuming that the average for the entire qtr does not improve at all

FX rate
AUD to USD, now 65, using FX rate of 68 for the entire second half estimates which again is a significant kitchen sinking against SBM

USD to CA D average 73 used

Hedges

There re three sets f hedges
20K at 1809 AUD
26000 at 1300 AUD
18812 at 1550CAD (feb to feb 2021, quarterly which means only 18812 delivered to june 2020 at this price

So model ,
using the the expensive printed AISC across both Gwalia  Simberit for both,
FX rates way higher than current,
Gold price average of of 1535 USD for the half
production estimates only to the bottom range of current guidance.

After kitchen sinking it all

$110M AUD estimate for this half

(note cash costs are lower than AISC
eg cash costs consolidated across the  producing assets in first 1100AUD, but the final AISC was 1391.

Just sharing some seemingly worst case numbers as I look to see if there is any value at 223/share