2nd Wave of the 2020 Crash Set

Originally posted by manjapra: ↑

I had posted this elsewhere ( a week ago) in the context of another discussion but being a medical professional these are my thoughts.

All markets are forward looking --perception being the driver of sentiment -- with a minimum 6 months time frame.
Australia and NZ (being protected huge moats) are in line to be among the first developed countries to exit out of COVID with minimal life damage.

At this rate it will be business as usual internally in all states except NSW in 2 months and across the country in 3-4months. This is great news because about 4 weeks ago it looked like it would be 6 to 9 months.

But because the population is corona 'naive' we will not have herd immunity -- which places us in a unique situation where we are 'holed in' in a safe spot till we have a vaccine that is globally available.

--> which means that internal projects are where the government will have to spend money on to keep the economy alive; the initial way to do it for the government is to bring forward all construction projects in the country, encourage construction boosts, encourage agriculture, maximise income generation in all sectors that fuel internal supply chains.

As you can see there is an international commodties boost on the horizon as every country will try to do the same to keep their economy chugging along in addition to printing money to fund it. Everyone knows this but are finding it hard to predict the start point of ths, which is getting longer as the US case curve takes longer to come down (There obviously will be a time lag till this happens, and will start to happen once the Us and Europe graphs reach the same point where the Australian graph is....the problem is that larger the initial case load and the population density of the region, the harder it is to reach the bottom point and the more likely for a 'second wave'; )

The US graph indicates the so called "second wave'

Actually there are multiple waves as new areas of the population become new epicentres. If US opens up early the above waves will continue. If social lockdown continues the intensity of each future wave will decrease and move down. It would seem that once the curve comes close to the bottom even without fundamental recovery the future looking inflationally affected market will move above pre-corona levels almost baffling logic

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At this rate it will be business as usual internally in all states except NSW in 2 months and
across the country in 3-4months.

This is great news because about 4 weeks ago it looked like it would be 6 to 9 months.
But because the population is corona 'naive' we will not have herd immunity -- which places
us in a unique situation where we are 'holed in' in a safe spot till we have a vaccine
that is globally available.

''I had posted this elsewhere ( a week ago) in the context of another discussion
but being a medical professional these are my thoughts.''

Firstly:

There is currently no evidence that Herd Immunity will work for covid.

Sweden are trying this & look at their infection rate chart (Worldometer)-

Secondly,

Testing of potentially infected persons is inadequate imo.

BTW, I am NOT a medical Professional.

I just spoke with a mate who got back from the U.S. a few weeks back.

He said things are crazy in the U.S. at the moment & many people purchasing multiple guns.

When he arrive in Australia, he got put in a 5 star luxury Hotel.

He mentioned that when he was tested for covid,

All they did was check his temperature with a digital sensor. That's It!

I would have thought this leaves a lot of room for error.

And for someone that has arrived from overseas, particularly from the U.S.,

I would have thought all arrivals would have been tested thoroughly, though

This does not seem to be the case.

So if this is the type of testing that will be used upon re-opening of business' etc.,

then, I personally don't have a lot of faith in this preventing further waves of covid.

I think the Governments are the one's being naive by easing restrictions too soon.

P.S. My mate said he was in Paradise there & didn't want to leave & couldn't believe that
some people were whinging about the 14 day quarantine.