Hi Plough interesting guesses there. As you say guys are saying it's anyones guess at this stage.
For my 2 cents worth I would guess if there is significant copper minerailisation below surface then I would not expect it to stop at 50 m - presumably it's all part of the same geological system (volcanic activity brining minerisaltion up along fault line) that brought up the zinc mineralisation and so far that's 250 m deep and open at depth in all three lodes. So at a guess I'd say 250 m is quite possible and a reasonable assumption.
I would also guess the ave grade has a lot of potential to be much higher than 2% average you assume given that wherever they have had access to channel samples which give a more reliable indication than rock chips which can be non random in nature (ie. chip off the interesting bits) we're talking 5.6% to 7.4% plus say 1% gold. I'd be comforttable in assuming 4% copper equivalent if I had to guess.
So my NPV would suggest 5 times as much mineralisation as you assume and twice grade. So say 10 times as high as your 500 mill. Of course greater scale and grade would actually mean a higher multiple but let's be conservative. On that basis NPV around $5 bill so about 70 times market cap current level.
This is not taking into account further increases in strike length and by the soudns of it they are pretty hopeful of more similar stuff at surface 4 k's away which would again double calculations up to around $10 bill.
Of course this is all just dreaming and naturally there would be a lot of dillution to get the mine and plant up and running. But the bottom line is at a 70 mill market cap I would not doubt $10-20 a share is the upside in the enxt 6-12 months and 30 cents the downside. I'd give it a 50/50 chance of significant high grade mienralaition at this point so for me the odds are hold on if youv'e backed up the truck adn bought plenty or else buy in the knowledge you could loose 70% or get a 10-20 bagger or bigger.
To get an idea - the company is fairly conservative in it's annocunments but the compared it to Mt. Isa.
Fingers crossed.
Cheers hots
PDZ Price at posting:
0.0¢ Sentiment: LT Buy Disclosure: Held
