I think that we are definitely in a new phase of this crisis...

I think that we are definitely in a new phase of this crisis following Trump's EU travel ban and the dawning realisation that the virus will not be contained and that infections are likely going to run into the hundreds of thousands or millions in each country (many of whom are probably already infected). The exponential curve of infections will likely dominate news flows in the next couple of weeks. The strain on the medical systems is going to be incredible.

There are, however, encouraging signs that the mortality of the virus is relatively low and that the vast majority of people who acquire the disease experience only a very mild illness. This is why the mortality rates have probably been grossly inflated to date - only the people who get pretty ill are even being diagnosed. I think that's how this will end - reluctant acceptance that Covid-19 will become one of the package of viruses that is in circulation during flu season, significantly worse than the others (because there is not yet immunity), but hardly apocalyptic. Hopefully we will have a vaccine to put in the flu shots in 1-2 years.

So difficult to predict how gold will trade through this. Short term (during the panic selling), I think we will see some liquidity driven sell-offs. As I write this, gold is selling off a bit and $1,600 looks vulnerable. Medium term, the odds of currency debasing by central banks and governments looks like being 100%, which can only be positive. But who really knows how gold will behave. Not sure that it's safe to assume that the GFC pattern (sell during crisis, buy during QE) will apply again, even though it seems logical.

A long winded way of saying - I'm still on the sidelines with SBM and the other goldies! The scale and speed of the sell-off, while their product remains at historically extremely elevated levels, has just been incredible.

Good luck to all.