That's a bit light.
Last years Good Oil Conference presentation stated ~ 11 billion bbls of leads. Over 9 billion in the top 20 leads and on top of that Gindara which is estimated between 450 and 900 million bbls if you believe NDO or KIK.
All they need now is the right dance partner.
If you assume a 20% success rate, a 35% recovery rate and 30% working interest you get 230 MMbbls of reserves.
230 * US$20/bbl = US$ 4,600 million
A$ 7,100 million or A$ 6.50 per share
That all said local analysts write NDO off for country risk. I have yet to find an analyst that can explain this to me. I reckon 'country risk' is a catch all phrase for 'I don't have a clue' or 'I don't analyse any company that does not pay me'.
Nido now has three directors who acually wrote and implemented Philippines energy policy. I doubt they would sign on for options if they felt that country risk was an issue.
IMHO of course.
Regards,
OPT
That's a bit light.Last years Good Oil Conference presentation...
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