Ok. can't help myself. Here's my .10 worth. Do I think it's going ahead. More yes than no. Why? Here are some of my reasonings, IMO of course & realising that the sh!t can hit the fan at anytime. Draft legislation for PSA, exploration etc was nutted out mths ago by the TFG (Malaysia meetings, Canadian consultant) while Puntgov was moving to do the same. Puntgov legislation fell off my radar during the wrangeling btw TFG/Punt/RRS works contract amendment episode. Whatever is used, the grdwork was done mths prior to current JV dealings. Huge motivators for Puntgov to push deal fwd, need to fix rumoured cashflow problems, need for immediate cash injection, need for international recogition/support/allies etc. If Puntgov had not ratified current agreement, I don't think they'd be going to Baidoa right now with the reported ministerial lineup. No brainer, it's all in the motivation & timing. TFG motivation. Peacekeeper force approved, mandate to stabalise territories held & foster environmet for talks. Clear pointer to UIC planners (UIC or IUC or whatever multinic) to grab as much territory during this window in which peacekeeper member states are still ratifying commitments. Get a map of Somalia with roads & towns, fairly easy to see for yourself whether rpts (reliable or otherwise) of skirmishes & troop movements make strategic sense. Will also see main transportation routes are main river systems & areas hit by floods - severely hampering mobilisation & forcing diversion of resources from fighting - granted, secondary roads provide some alternative, however without airpower (such as Ethiopia) groundbased warfare is influenced by weather - another window which TFG needs to capatilise on & shore up international & Puntgov support. In the meantime Puntgov will be firming sthn border & moving to ensure internal security (another no brainer) - and there's already talk of a separation of states if the ssh!t hits the fan. Backup plans. As for drop dead date - I have no real problem with extension - given the scale of what's at state, the current political climate etc- sure short term SP would suffer, but the bigger longer term picture is what I'm interested in. These are some of my thoughts. Enter at your own risk - don't swallow what I have to say. cheers
RRS Price at posting:
0.0¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
