The 3 Dollar Party is coming very soon, as the 2017 Half Yearly Report will be released on 15th Feb.
Will the SP hit A$3 on 15th? We shall wait and see, as only 7 trading sessions remaining...
My rational for A$3 this time is as follows:
Half year revenue number is NZ$272.6m, as calculated below:
4M16 revenue: 79.3m1, monthly average: 19.83m(79.3/4);
1H16 revenue: 139.2m2;
Nov & Dec 2016 revenue: 59.9m(139.2-79.3), monthly average: 30m;
The monthly average for Nov & Dec is 51.3% higher than that for 4M16(30/19.83).
4M17 revenue: 155.2m3, monthly average: 38.8m(155.2/4);
Apply the same growth rate of 51.3%, we get a monthly average of 58.7m(38.8x1.513) for Nov & Dec 2017.
Therefore, the total 1H17 revenue would be NZ$272.6m(155.2+58.7x2).
Assuming that 2H17 revenue is 5% higher than 1H17, the total annual avenue of 2017 would be $558.8m (272.6+272.6x1.05).
The growth rate of 5% is reasonable and conservative, as 2H16 revenue was 53.6% higher than 1H16 (total annual revenue of 2016 was 352.8m, 1H16 was 139.1m and 2H16 was 213.7m).
Assuming that full year NPAT margin is 15%, the NPAT would be $83.8m.
The full year margin of 15% is reasonable, as the margin was already 14.2% (22m/155.2m) for the 4M17 (see Annual meeting presentation 2016, p.18), and conservative as slc4me expects the full year margin would be at least 16%4.
Then, the EPS would be 11.7 cents (83.8m/715.87m of shares outstanding5).
And give a PE of 28x, the fair value of A2M would be NZ$3.28 (0.117x28), or A$3.12.
Again, the PE of 28x is reasonable, as the median PE is currently 25.58x for the sector of food beverage and tobacco industry6, and conservative as slc4me expects a PE of 35x7.
1. Annual meeting presentation 2016, p.18
https://thea2milkcompany.com/wp-con...al-Meeting-Presentation_presentation-only.pdf
2. Half yearly results presentation 2016, p.6
https://thea2milkcompany.com/wp-content/uploads/ATM-A2M-FY16-first-half-results-presentation1.pdf
3. Annual meeting presentation 2016, p.18
4. https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/some-musings.3154280/?post_id=21762632#.WJOj1eh97IV
5. https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/A2M:AU
6. From nabtrade
7. https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/some-musings.3154280/?post_id=21762632#.WJOj1eh97IV
Cheers!![]()
- Forums
- ASX - By Stock
- A2M
- 3 Dollar Party is coming soon...
3 Dollar Party is coming soon...
-
- There are more pages in this discussion • 103 more messages in this thread...
You’re viewing a single post only. To view the entire thread just sign in or Join Now (FREE)
Featured News
Add A2M (ASX) to my watchlist
|
|||||
Last
$6.78 |
Change
0.060(0.89%) |
Mkt cap ! $4.858B |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
$6.70 | $6.79 | $6.70 | $1.18M | 175.3K |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
8 | 1665 | $6.77 |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
$6.78 | 620 | 2 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
7 | 4544 | 6.750 |
6 | 8571 | 6.740 |
6 | 7712 | 6.730 |
5 | 2720 | 6.720 |
6 | 2614 | 6.710 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
6.770 | 788 | 2 |
6.780 | 28127 | 7 |
6.790 | 10903 | 6 |
6.800 | 23194 | 9 |
6.810 | 2843 | 5 |
Last trade - 10.14am 15/08/2024 (20 minute delay) ? |
Featured News
A2M (ASX) Chart |
The Watchlist
I88
INFINI RESOURCES LIMITED
Charles Armstrong, CEO & Managing Director
Charles Armstrong
CEO & Managing Director
SPONSORED BY The Market Online