https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/russia-driver-behind-...

https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/russia-driver-behind-chinas-aluminium-import-boom-2024-01-30/

I see a lot of Russian aluminium has been ending up in China. This shouldn't be a surprise. It reminds me of something Rick Rule said in a recent YouTube interview. He mentioned that the platinum, palladium and nickel prices are under so much pressure because Russia is selling / dumping everything it can to fund military supplies. He suspects sustaining capex is virtually zero. And that if 1990/91 is a guide, it takes 18 months for the glut of Russian oversupply to be absorbed. At which time, supply destruction has taken place, and prices quickly rise when Russia's cupboards are bare with nothing left to sell.

He didn't mention aluminium / alumina specifically, but his theory intuitively makes sense. Given that alumina / aluminium / bauxite accounts for 50% of our revenue it makes me wonder about how this theory, if correct, would apply to us.

The cure for low prices is low prices.

When I consider what's been happening in other commodity markets I sure am glad S32 is diversified into many different commodities and various mines around the world.

The half yearly report is fast approaching (15/2). An update on the Hermosa FID situation could be a mere fortnight away.