3 simple observations

Alright, reading through all off this stuff it is pretty easy to get sidetracked, start forming opinions based on emotion etc. 3 simple observations that might help you make up your mind about how to play this:

1) There is no confidential information being leaked on a scale large enough to have an impact on the share price. If you dont believe me go to your chart and have a look at 05/12/11. Given the sp action generated from the last legal update you must consider it possible the next announcement has potential to repeat this.

2) There will be an announcement on Friday, Taken from the Quaterly Activities Report:

"A hearing has been scheduled for 10 February
2012 at which the proceedings will be discontinued if the conditions have been satisfied or, if
not satisfied, the Court will give further instructions to the parties."

They may just meet to request more time however failure by either party to meet the conditions of the settlement will give the Court discretion. This is a kind of insurance against BB blue balling tactics...

3) While we have all been frustrated by the confidentiality clause AGS must comply as a condition of the settlement. In the meantime they have made 2 announcements which sign-post very clearly that they are moving on to a new phase of their business. They are trying to signal to the market their intentions without breaching the confidentiality agreement. Given IG's interests align quite closely with shareholders I am incline to listen and trust this.

We can all speculate on what the possible outcomes are here but the above facts suggest a positive outcome for AGS holders in any number of scenarios. The only thing I can see standing in the way of another 50-100% increase in share price is a breakdown in the mediation process. Friday's hearing even gives them insurance against that. It is a risk, but you are playing with the deck stacked in your favor for a change.