On the assumption that comments in today’s article by one of...

On the assumption that comments in today’s article by one of Aquino’s flock, Tanada, is consistent with Presidential policy – we can now move beyond discussion that the President is a flake and will do nothing about Tampakan. Predictably, it seems he has stuck by his position of maintaining that he supports mining where the locals support it, thereby not needing to do anything.


Refer: http://businessmirror.com.ph/home/economy/21743-tanada-fate-of-tampakan-mine-rests-on-the-public


No sooner had I pressed post on my previous message saying that Indophiles could watch TVI at Canatuan for some hope, that the door was shut by a court injunction allowing Canatuan freedom to operate despite the ban in Zamboanga del Norte. That court decision was made in provincial Dipolog, not any national court as some media would have you believe. Dipolog is the same city where the ordinance to ban the mine was promulgated by the Provincial Board in the first place. So, whether or not TVI want to go to a national court to challenge the broader issue of provincial power, that also affects Tampakan, is unknown. But IMO, they would be best just to carry on as normal and not rock the boat on the expectation that the injunction will provide sufficient protection for the duration of their mine.

So excluding Canatuan, looking at the recent outcomes in the past we have seen 3 strikes for Tampakan. Those being:

Strike 1. Head of DENR, Paje declined to take a lead role on the provincial ban issue, instead deferring it to the DILG. Thus it seems the pending mining policy will not directly address Tampakan or provincial power, but will tackle issues of repatriating more mining revenue to the government, small mining issues and identifying Tier 1 mining areas with special provisions. If I was SMI I would at least be lobbying Paje to ensure that existing FTAA boundaries are included as Tier 1 areas with favourable conditions. There is a chance that money won’t flow as easily to projects outside of designated Tier 1 areas. I suspect a lot of people (including myself) won’t be happy with this policy and it may limit overall national exploration expenditure.

Strike 2. The ECC was expected to be granted but it now seems it won’t be granted unless Tampakan gains approval by all governments to produce by open cut methods.

Strike 3. Today’s article suggesting that Congress may decide that provincial governments do have a controlling right on mine permitting.

So it is 3 strikes and you are out, with each strike playing on the others to increase the likelihood that Tampakan won’t be starting construction let alone production by 2016. So where to from here? IMO, there are at least 3 options for SMI:

Option 1. Do nothing except maintain the status-quo of supporting locals and “employing” tribals hoping that the next President will be more supportive. If SMI take this option, then IMO, then they want to be ensuring that the pending policy does not reverse any permitting gains they have have made thus far.

Option 2. Threaten to walk away and see if any leverage can be gained from that. But, IMO, that could open up a can of worms if they don’t actually want to follow through on it.

Option 3. Have the matter decided in higher Courts, which may take any number of years to decide and may in fact decide that provincial governments do have the right to veto projects.


It will be interesting to see what this year brings to those in the Philippine exploration game, but I suspect the new mining policy (if it ever does actually arrive), will not be well received by some.