3 weeks to go, page-2

Poundstretcher,

The final price really depends on so many unknown factors I think anyone would just be guessing.

For starters, will there be a positive announcement on drilling prior to the general meeting?  My guess is yes under normal circumstances.  In addition, the decision from EPA regarding Mining Licence should be made before the meeting which probably will not make much impression on buyers, but could hold sellers back. Will there be any other announcements which could significantly sway the price?

Next, who is selling and why?  None of the 'big boys' seem to have changed position much based on May top 40 holders.  I can't see why they would unless they are privy to information the rest of the world is not. I'm guessing most sellers either need the cash, have spotted a short term opportunity elsewhere, have run out of patience or are simply going short.

So that leads us to the last question, who is buying? APAC have been diluted by Pacific Road buy in and will be further diluted if tranche 2 is approved.  It would not surprise me if they are slowly accumulating on market if they plan on upping their holding to its previous percentage.

Another possible buyer is Yuriy ltd.  They hold the majority of options on issue together with piggy backs should they be issued.  Once they are issued, both Pacific Road and APAC will be further diluted.  Will either party want to buy off market from Yuriy - if so at what price and what would Yuriy sell for? Options exercise @ 1.5c, so not much profit at current SP. That is $2.5m in the ABU coffers if they are exercised though.

Even if Yuriy transfer all 166.5m options to APAC &/or Pacific Road, they would be nearly 70m shares short of returning to 19.99% holdings each. Will they buy the balance on market? Will they wait for the piggy backs to vest (I will be a happy holder that day!)?

We are unlikely to know whether a major change happens prior to the meeting unless someone issues a 'Change in substantial holding' which I find unlikely, so I doubt we will know if any of the above possible buyers are actually doing so until July at the earliest.

Poundstretcher, you mention "post consolidation @ .24 seems an attractive number for new fund raising. " Do you think another fund raising is on the cards and if so, what for?  What makes you think this?